Bet the Bookies Get It Wrong Again [PHIL-OSOPHY]
So, who will win the 2020 presidential election?
National polls say Joe Biden is way ahead, but looking at them closely, the national polls could be under-polling Republican participation like they did in 2016 when they said Hillary Clinton was up by 14 percent just a week before the election.
And this time around, don't look to the bookies because they really blew the last presidential election just like the pollsters.
Betting on the presidential race in 2016 hit record highs, but bookmakers took a bath. National pollsters are like weather forecasters – if you get it wrong, you still have a job. But bookies put their money where their mouths are and can lose millions when they screw up.
So how do the bookmakers' numbers from the last presidential election compare to this time around? According to Gambling.com, Bookies.com, and the Daily Election Tracker, numbers from the 2016 election to this one are hauntingly similar. President Donald Trump is where he was last time – trailing – and Biden is not far off of where Clinton was at this point in 2016.
There are still two weeks before the election and things always happen; for example, Biden's alleged link in Ukraine has improved Trump's standing. But the biggest bettors of $100,000 or more are still wagering on Biden. Just remember, the pollsters and bookies got it all wrong last time.
I'm looking at voter registration in Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan, early voting in Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio to see if Americans feel they are better off today than four years ago. A Gallup poll recently asked, "In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an Independent?" and the answer came back as 28 percent said Republican, 27 percent said Democrat and 42 percent said independent. The enthusiasm favors Trump, and the polls asking voters who they believe will win suggest that 40 percent of Americans think Biden will win the election, while 56 percent predict a Trump victory.
Mix all of this with my tea leaves and I see that President Trump may well surprise his doubters on November 3 and win again.
Phil Paleologos is the host of The Phil Paleologos Show on 1420 WBSM New Bedford. He can be heard weekdays from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. Contact him at firstname.lastname@example.org and follow him on Twitter @PhilPaleologos. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.