Mass. Governor’s Race: Why Prediction Markets Reveal a Different Story Than Polls

We have our teams in place for the November 3, 2026, Massachusetts gubernatorial race, so let the games begin. Mike Minogue is the Republican nominee for governor, and New Bedford City Councilor Shawn Oliver is his running mate.

Some believe the incumbent Democrats, Governor Maura Healey and Lieutenant Governor Kim Driscoll, are on the ropes and face a tough re-election campaign this fall. That may happen, but a reading of the tea leaves might show something different entirely.

Recent polling has shown Healey's approval rating slipping while her disapproval rating inches upward. However, the same pre-primary election polls show her easily fending off a challenge from Minogue.

Will Massachusetts Voters Really Dump Healey In November?

The Polling Paradox: Why Traditional Numbers Might Be Slipping

Polling has become less reliable in recent years. People may have become savvy with polls, intentionally misleading pollsters, or they might frequently change their opinions.

Whatever the case, the oddsmakers are looking these days at what are called prediction markets to get a better sense of what voters are thinking.

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Inside the Prediction Markets: What Polymarket and Kalshi Reveal

Polymarket, which bills itself as "the world's largest prediction market platform for real-time global events," offers "markets on everything," including politics. Polymarket's website promotes trading on weather, football, Esports, and more.

Will Massachusetts Voters Really Dump Healey In November?.

As of Wednesday, September 2, 2026, the day after the Massachusetts primary elections, 97 percent of Polymarket betters were betting on Healey to win on November 3, with only three percent backing a Minogue win.

Betters on another prediction market, Kalshi, also picked Healey to win big in November, with a total of 95 percent. Only six percent are picking Minogue to eke out a victory.

The Legal Landscape of Political Betting Platforms

Political prediction markets are legal to operate and use under U.S. federal law if hosted on designated contract markets approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.