If Judge Brett Kavanaugh withdraws from the process of Senate confirmation for a seat on the Supreme Court, the Republican base will erupt and go to the polls.

The Republican Party activists and the voters they can motivate when they are engaged are focused on the federal courts. There is no bigger prize than the Supreme Court for most conservative activists. There are still people in the GOP complaining about the Warren Court and those liberal decisions.

If Kavanaugh is pushed out of the process by the Democrats, there will be a fresh opening on the court for President Trump to fill. Up until recently, the confirmation of Kavanaugh was assumed to be guaranteed. The court was slanting to the right, and the conservative base was elated. When voters are satisfied, they tend to stay home.

The conservative base will see an injustice in the stoppage of Kavanaugh and get angry. They will also see that they need to get another conservative jurist in the vacant Supreme Court seat that Kavanaugh was intended to fill. The conservative base will punish Democrats at the ballot box.

The Democrat senators in states that Trump won two years ago will be punished by the voters. The states of Indiana, West Virginia, Montana and North Dakota all voted for Donald Trump over Hilliary Clinton by large margins. The GOP has a three percent higher turnout over the Democrats in midterm elections, according to past election results.  Add the higher turnout to an angry voter base, and those Democrats in Trump states are going to get knocked out on Election Day.

Conservative organizations are already running ads comparing the scandals of individual Democrat Senators with the values people want on the Supreme Court. They are using the Chinese espionage agent on Sen. Diane Feinstein’s staff, and the stolen valor charge against Sen. Richard Blumenthal, who falsely claimed he served in Vietnam. These ads are only going to get harder and more frequent if Kavanaugh withdraws from the process.

Chris McCarthy is the host of The Chris McCarthy Show on 1420 WBSM New Bedford. He can be heard weekdays from 10 a.m. to noon. Contact him at chris.mccarthy@townsquaremedia.com and follow him on Twitter @Chris_topher_Mc. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

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