UMass Dartmouth Political Analyst Predicts Major Midterm Shift in Congress

Tuesday, November 3 should be a pretty good night for Democrats around the country. That's the feeling of UMass Dartmouth Political Science Professor Kenneth Manning. He and his students have been studying trends leading up to the midterms. He shared some of his thoughts this week on Townsquare Sunday.

Historical Midterm Trends and Congressional Forecast

"History suggests that the president's party tends to lose seats in Congress in the midterm elections. It's happened 20 out of the last 22 midterm elections," Manning said. "Republicans are certain to lose seats. The question is how many? Will it be a few or dozens? It's almost a certainty that Republicans will lose their majority in the House of Representatives."

How about the Senate?

"I would say there's a good chance Democrats will end up controlling the Senate," Manning said. "Republican candidates are running behind in a number of states that normally lean Republican, but I'm not quite willing to say Democrats will win all those races."

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Legislative Strategy and Filibuster Debates

If Democrats win both the House and Senate, what will they do when taking power in 2027? Manning answers that with a question of his own: what will they do, or what should they do?

"I think Democrats should repeal the filibuster, then pass legislation that's popular, like increasing the federal minimum wage or increasing taxes on billionaires and force Republicans to vote against popular initiatives," he said.

Manning, however, doubts any of that will ever happen. "You will probably see some investigations that will be long and drawn out, and ultimately won't move the needle with the American public," he said. "The public is likely to remain frustrated with the way things are in Washington."

Massachusetts state house with golden dome and flags

Massachusetts Statewide Races and State House Dynamics

Looking at statewide races, Manning believes President Donald Trump has been effective in mobilizing the white, working class voters, and there are more Republican candidates seeking office than any time in recent history. Will that translate to major changes at the State House? Manning doesn't think so.

"Mike Minogue is almost certain to lose in the governor's race. The only question is by how much," he said. "Could we see more Republicans winning seats in the Legislature? Yeah, I think there's a chance of that."

Voter Economic Anxieties and Student Priorities

Finally, we asked Professor Manning what his students are talking about as we approach the midterm elections. "They're talking about the same issues most folks are," he said. "They pay bills, they buy groceries and put gas in their cars. They're worried about the economy and the job situation. They're concerned about the economic future of this country, and where they fit in."

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